Ten years after the Brexit vote, the European Union (EU) finds itself in a state of flux, with both positive and negative outcomes emerging from the decision to leave. The storm that erupted over Brussels on the night of June 23, 2016, has since subsided, leaving behind a complex landscape of political and economic shifts. This article delves into the impact of Brexit, exploring how it has both hindered and, in some ways, helped the EU, and what this means for the future of European integration.
The Storm and Its Aftermath
The Brexit vote was a seismic event, triggering a wave of far-right sentiment across Europe. Leaders like Nigel Farage and Marine Le Pen capitalized on the sentiment, calling for referendums in their respective countries. However, despite the heated rhetoric, not a single country followed the UK's lead. This was a turning point, as Michael Roth, Germany's former Europe minister, noted: 'Leaving the club is no longer seen as a solution. It’s seen as a warning.'
The storm of Brexit has had a profound impact on the EU, both in terms of its internal dynamics and its external relations. For one, it has made decisions easier, particularly in defense and security policy. The EU's creation of the European Peace Facility, worth €17 billion, and its efforts to rearm the continent in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, were made possible by the Brexit experience. This unity of purpose, as Charles Michel, the former Belgian prime minister, noted, was a 'useful preparation' for the war in Ukraine.
However, Brexit has also left a void, particularly in economic policy and the regulation of technology. Some Eurosceptics, like Nicola Procaccini, co-leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists, regret the loss of British influence. Procaccini, a member of the nationalist Brothers of Italy, believes that Conservative forces still have momentum, citing the EU's tough new law on deportations. But many of the EU's key figures are in relatively weak positions, making it hard to claim any firm ideological shift.
The EU's Vulnerabilities and Resilient Strengths
For a long time, the EU's vulnerabilities were exposed by Hungary, as its leader, Viktor Orbán, served as a disruptor-in-chief, exercising vetoes over big decisions. However, with Orbán now defeated at the ballot box, the bloc's officials are considering contingency plans to prevent future vetoes by new joiners who turn rogue. This shift is significant, as it marks a move away from the disruptive influence of authoritarian insiders, which Grabbe, now based at the Bruegel economic thinktank, has long argued poses a bigger threat to the EU than Brexit.
The EU's resilience is also evident in its ability to adapt and evolve. The bloc's officials are now considering a 'reset' summit with the UK, aiming to strike a veterinary deal, link emissions trading schemes, and forge a youth mobility program. This is a positive step, as it shows the EU's willingness to engage in constructive dialogue with its former member. However, the UK's current position as an 'awkward partner' is a reminder of the challenges that remain.
The Future of European Integration
Ten years on, the question remains: has Brexit helped or hindered the EU? The answer is complex. On the one hand, Brexit has made decisions easier and has led to a more unified approach to defense and security policy. On the other hand, it has left a void in economic policy and the regulation of technology, and has exposed the EU's vulnerabilities to disruptive forces. The EU's ability to adapt and evolve, however, is a testament to its resilience, and the bloc's officials are now considering contingency plans to prevent future vetoes by new joiners who turn rogue.
In the end, the impact of Brexit on the EU is a reminder of the complex and dynamic nature of European integration. The storm that erupted over Brussels has since subsided, leaving behind a landscape of both challenges and opportunities. As the EU continues to navigate the complexities of the modern world, it is clear that the Brexit experience has been a significant turning point, shaping the bloc's future in ways both positive and negative.
